The hottest structural supply shortage highlights

The structural supply shortage highlights that the supply and demand of coal may be in a tight balance throughout the year

the cold wave weather continues, and the pressure to maintain the supply of coal in winter increases sharply. Seasonal and regional structural supply shortages have an important impact on the coal market. The bottleneck of railway transportation has become an important factor restricting coal supply. On January 31, the spot market price of 5500 kcal thermal coal in Qinhuangdao port was reported at 764 yuan/ton, and the rise continued, exceeding the peak in 2017

with the gradual concentration of coal production capacity to the four provinces (regions) of Shanxi, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia and Ningxia, the coal production capacity in the northeast, East China, Central South, southwest and other regions continues to decrease, and the transfer area and scale of coal are further expanded. The shortage of coal railway transportation capacity from the origin to the Bohai Rim region is prominent

structural supply shortage highlights

the cold wave weather continues to stack, industrial power consumption has increased significantly, the daily consumption of power plants has reached a new high, and the pressure to maintain supply in winter has increased sharply. On January 30, the daily consumption of the six coastal power plants reached 811900 tons, and the number of days available for coal storage fell to 10.93 days. Huaneng, Datang, Huadian and the state household appliance Investment Corporation jointly submitted a report to the national development and Reform Commission a few days ago, saying that the current coal price is too high, the inventory is tight, and the supply guarantee situation is serious

earlier, dozens of coal enterprises such as the national energy investment group and China Coal Energy announced to cut the price of electric coal by 15 yuan to 20 yuan/ton. This action delayed the pace of coal price rise in the short term, but did not fundamentally reverse the upward trend of coal price. The rise in coal prices is difficult to suppress, which reflects the contradiction between strong demand and structural shortage of supply. Seasonal and regional supply shortages caused by the mismatch between supply and demand in the place of origin and demand have further pushed up coal prices

according to relevant media reports, since the beginning of winter, power consumption has continued to rise, with the national average daily power generation reaching 19.129 billion kwh, with the highest value reaching 20.1 billion kwh, an increase of 15% over the maximum value in winter last year, setting a record high in winter. Affected by the low temperature cold wave and the shortage of power coal supply, the power supply of Hebei, Jiangsu, Henan, Hunan, Jiangxi and other provinces is tight

insiders said that there were many reasons for the shortage of coal supply in winter. In addition to the continuous cold wave weather and the obvious increase of residents' heating load demand, the industrial construction situation is good, and the industrial power consumption has increased significantly, which has become the main factor for the increase of thermal power load. Relevant data show that in 2017, thermal power generation increased by 5.2% year-on-year, and the contribution rate of industrial power to the growth of power consumption in the whole society reached 60.2%

the China Coal Industry Association pointed out that at the end of the experiment at this time, the tight coal supply in some regions in some periods deserves attention. The association has predicted that during winter and spring, the supply and demand of the national coal market will remain basically balanced, and some regions will be constrained by resources and transportation, or there will be time tight problems

China's coal production areas are mainly concentrated in the western and northern regions, while coal consumption is mainly concentrated in the economically developed eastern coastal areas and southern regions, especially in the Bohai rim economic circle, the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta. The reverse distribution of coal production and demand has formed a pattern of "transporting coal from the north to the South and transferring coal from the west to the East"

with the increase of industry concentration, the regional supply pattern has changed, and the contradiction between supply and demand has further intensified. According to the statistics of Yimei Research Institute, in 2017, Shanxi and Shaanxi adopted polyurethane sound insulation materials to reduce the noise of cars by 50%, and the coal output of the four provinces (regions) of Mongolia and Ningxia was 2.376 billion tons, accounting for 69% of the total output of the country. The output gradually concentrated in the above four regions, and the coal production capacity in Northeast, East China, Central South and southwest continued to decrease. Among them, the coal output of Hebei, Shandong, Anhui, Heilongjiang and other coal producing provinces in the eastern region fell. The original coal transfer out area gradually became the transfer in area, and the coal transfer in area and scale further expanded

the transportation bottleneck problem needs to be solved urgently.

with the westward shift of the center of gravity of coal production and the expansion of the scale of coal allocation among regions, the coal transportation pattern formed over the years has been gradually broken, and the regional and temporal coal supply tension has intensified. The advanced production capacity of coal producing areas in the north and West is released, and the demand for railway transportation is concentrated to Taiyuan, Hohhot and Xi'an railway bureaus

in the report to the national development and Reform Commission, the four power generation enterprises said that the scale of coal trans regional transportation continued to expand, the average transportation distance of coal procurement increased, and the logistics cost increased accordingly. At present, the cost of logistics accounts for about 50% of the cost of coal procurement for trans regional transportation of power plants. It is required to stop the rise of railway freight and ensure the supply of power coal

according to the information released by Yulin coal trading center, people from China Railway Corporation said that the railway transportation price should be adjusted according to the market, not the coal price. China Railway and the 18 Railway Bureau Group Companies in China operate in accordance with market orientation. With a good market and large demand, the price rises, and when the market is bad, the price will fall

"in terms of railway transport capacity, faced with the impact of seasonal and cyclical superposition and other factors, the peak transport bottleneck is prominent." Pan Hanxiang said, "from the current situation, the overall annual transportation capacity of the Daqin line, an important channel for the transportation of coal from the west to the East, is 450 million tons. If an oil leak is found in 2017, it has been loaded with 430 million tons, and the Daqin line is operating at full capacity throughout the year."

"in the summer of 2017 and the peak season of this winter, the coal transportation capacity from the origin to the Bohai Rim region is short, and the transportation volume is large, with prominent contradictions." Zeng Hao, deputy general manager of Fenwei energy information company and China coal resources, said, "at present, the load of major coal transportation lines such as Datong Qinhuangdao railway and Shuohuang railway is very high. In addition, the short haul reshipment fee of the railway station has risen rapidly since December 2017. Our statistics show that as of January 25, the cumulative increase has reached 45 yuan/ton. The tight transportation capacity and the increase in freight have led to the rapid widening of the price difference between pithead and port coal prices."

in terms of railway shipment, a coal trader said, "when purchasing coal at the pit mouth, it is difficult to solve the problem of railway transportation wagons. In the past, one train can be arranged every other day, but now it can only be arranged every week." Although the port supply is tight and the price is high, it is difficult for traders to transport to the port even if they increase the purchase volume of pits. The trader pointed out that since December 2017, the coal shipping link has made considerable profits, and the difficulty of shipping has become the main contradiction at present

relevant data show that as of November 2017, the cumulative railway freight volume reached 3.38 billion tons, an increase of 12.2% year-on-year. Among them, coal freight volume accounts for nearly 60%. In the first ten months of 2017, the cumulative coal railway freight volume was 1.79 billion tons, an increase of 16% year-on-year

analysts at CSC securities predict that in 2017, the coal railway freight volume reached 2.1 billion to 2.2 billion tons. According to this estimation, the coal railway transportation volume in 2018 is expected to exceed 2.3 billion tons, reaching the peak level in recent years. CSC pointed out that in 2018, the "three West Regions" (Shanxi, Shaanxi and Western Inner Mongolia) may add more than 100 million tons of railway outward transportation demand. It is estimated that there will be a transportation capacity gap of 30million-40million tons for the outward transportation of coal by railway in the "three West Regions" in 2018. Comparing the medium-term and short-term capacity under construction data, the short-term capacity under construction in the "three West Regions" will be released, and the westward shift of the focus of coal production may make the new demand for coal railway outward transportation in the "three West Regions" exceed 100 million tons in 2018. In 2018, the four major railway lines of "transporting coal from the west to the East", namely Datong Qinhuangdao railway, Shuohuang Railway, Zhangzhou Tangshan railway and Jinzhong South Railway, are expected to accommodate 60-70 million tons of transportation increment, with a large gap

the reasons for the tension of railway transport capacity: on the one hand, the demand side is growing rapidly; On the other hand, due to environmental factors, in 2017, the ports around the Bohai Sea banned the collection and distribution of coal by truck, causing the transportation pressure to shift to the railway end

pan Hanxiang said that recently, the China Railway Administration has taken continuous measures to "ensure transportation", including the launch of 5000 new cars, the opening of 10000 ton trains on the Mongolian Hebei line, etc., but the short-term impact may be limited. According to the railway traffic volume data of previous years, the transportation capacity will usually be released to a certain extent after the Spring Festival, with a month on month increase of about 10%. It is expected that the market will be less affected by the bottleneck of transportation capacity after the festival

the supply and demand of coal is in tight balance throughout the year

Zeng Hao predicted that there will be a trend turn in coal prices in mid March. If the cold wave weather does not last long and there is a large amount of coal production during the Spring Festival holiday, the market turning point may come ahead of schedule

pan Hanxiang said that the price of thermal coal is high. If the replenishment of power plants before the holiday is not ideal, the market will still be strong in the short term after the holiday. With the arrival of the off-season, market demand is expected to fall. Throughout the year, if the winter of 2017, that is, the superposition of seasonal multiple factors, does not occur, the market will be relatively stable

looking forward to 2018, there is uncertainty about whether industrial power consumption can continue to maintain a substantial growth. Many analysts said that the growth rate of thermal power generation is conservatively estimated to be 2% - 3% steady growth, and the coal supply is expected to be in a tight balance in 2018

for the supply side, relevant analysts believe that since the second half of 2016, although the profits of coal enterprises have improved, the profits are mainly used to make up for liabilities, pay back wages, etc. the debt ratio of the coal group is still very high, the balance sheet has not been effectively repaired, and there is no more financial resources to expand production capacity. In terms of fixed investment in the industry, it is still low and investment expansion is still limited. This means that there will not be too many new production increases in the next few years

in addition, the target of 150 million tons of coal capacity reduction in 2017 was overfulfilled. According to relevant media reports, the target of coal capacity reduction in 2018 may be the same as that in 2017. In the context of supply side structural reform, it is expected that the supply and demand pattern will not change much. Analysts predict that the average market price of thermal coal in 2018 is in the range of 640 yuan - 650 yuan/ton