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Influencing factors and prediction analysis of domestic building coating market

influencing factors and prediction analysis of domestic building coating market

July 1, 2020

in 2018, the global coating market reached $164.9 million, the Asia Pacific region accounted for half of the total, and the Chinese market accounted for about 2/3 of the Asia Pacific region. By the end of 2018, the total output of architectural coatings in China was 7.176 million tons, accounting for about 40% of the total output of national coatings. China's construction coating industry is market-oriented, and production is basically based on sales, with localized production and few imports and exports. Therefore, the output can be regarded as the sales volume of coating. Being able to accurately predict the development trend of China's architectural coating market has great guiding significance for coating enterprises at home and abroad, and can provide reference for enterprises to make correct decisions, so that manufacturers can adopt appropriate strategies to seek faster and greater development

the development prediction of the building coating market has attracted the attention of relevant research institutions and experts. Based on the prosperity of the real estate industry in recent years, the prospective industry research institute predicts that the output of architectural coatings will maintain a medium to low growth rate. In, the output of architectural coatings will reach 7.79 million tons, 8.1 million tons, 8.42 million tons, 8.76 million tons and 9.11 million tons respectively. Lin Xuanyi, a domestic coating industry expert, combined with China's external environment, the domestic development status of domestic GDP, M2, fixed asset investment of the whole society and private fixed asset investment, real estate investment and his years of industry experience, predicted that the output of architectural coatings in 2019 was estimated to grow at a growth rate of about 3%. Andy Doyle, President of the world coatings Council and President of the American Coatings Industry Association, predicts that China's coatings will grow at a rate of more than 5%. The above experts mainly use the methods of analogy and recursion year by year and region, as well as the comparison of per capita consumption. In the context of the era of big data, this paper uses the data of paint production and related industries collected in the past 10 years for the first time, builds the model of relevant influencing factors, and carries out regression analysis on the data to obtain the prediction results of China's paint market in the next three years, so as to provide reference for the decisions of various paint manufacturers

1 construction of influencing factor model of domestic building paint production

1.1 relationship between total building output value (x1) and building paint production (y)

in the consumption of major building materials products, the construction industry accounts for 50% - 70%; At the same time, construction materials account for more than 70% of the cost of construction products. Therefore, the construction industry and building materials industry are interdependent, mutually restrictive and closely related. Architectural coatings are mainly used on the internal and external surfaces of buildings to play the role of protection and decoration. They are one of the main materials of building materials and are closely related to the development of the construction industry. Therefore, the following assumptions can be drawn: the total output value of buildings has a positive impact on the output of architectural coatings

1.2 the relationship between real estate investment (x2) and architectural coating production (y)

in recent years, China's real estate development investment has maintained a rapid growth trend. As the pillar industry of China's economy and the direct downstream industry of the architectural coating industry, the real estate industry plays a vital role in the development of architectural coatings. In 2017, under the keynote of "no speculation in housing", the investment in real estate development still maintained a high-speed growth, driving the positive development of the architectural coating market. The following assumptions can be obtained: real estate investment has a positive impact on the output of architectural coatings

1.3 the relationship between the urban resident population (x3) and the output of architectural coatings (y)

there is a significant positive correlation between the level of urbanization and real estate demand and supply. Every 1% increase in the urbanization rate will bring 1223400 m2 of real estate demand. At the same time, every 1% increase in the urbanization rate will also promote 7.079 billion yuan of housing. However, the good news is that after all, this difficulty has been overcome by the development of real estate development and investment activities. The increase in the urbanization rate indicates the increase in the population of urban permanent residents, and the increase in the population of urban permanent residents promotes the use of architectural coatings. From this, we can get the following assumptions: the urban resident population has a positive impact on the output of architectural coatings

1.4 relationship between M2 (x4) and building coating output (y) power machinery factory

in recent 20 years, China's broad money (M2) has increased annually. In 2008, with the introduction of the 4trillion economic stimulus policy, the growth rate of China's M2 accelerated. Since then, the change of M2 has always been at a high level. In recent 20 years, the annual growth rate of M2 in China has been more than 16%, and the highest annual growth rate has exceeded 48%. China's M2 growth rate is rapid, but China's inflation is not fast, which is mainly invested in the real estate industry. The capital reservoir effect of the real estate industry is obvious, which also stimulates the rapid development of the building coating industry. From this, we can get the following assumptions: the generalized amount of money has a positive impact on the output of architectural coatings

1.5 the relationship between GDP (x5) and architectural coating output (y)

China's real estate industry has always accounted for a very high proportion of GDP. In 2018, the real estate sales were 14.99 trillion yuan, which was about 15 trillion yuan in China. The GDP exceeded 90 trillion yuan, accounting for 1/6 of the total GDP. The relationship between GDP and the real estate industry is very close. GDP promotes the real estate industry and promotes the development of architectural coatings. The following assumptions can be obtained: GDP has a positive impact on the output of architectural coatings. To sum up, the following prediction model is obtained: y=f (x1, X2, X3, x4, x5)

2 data collection and model correction

on the basis of reviewing the relevant statistical yearbooks of the year and the data released by the National Bureau of statistics and the China Industrial Coatings Association, a relevant industry organization, the data corresponding to China's architectural coatings production and relevant influencing factors are sorted out, as shown in Table 1

2.1 use SPSS software to analyze the collinearity of each factor of the original data

the collinearity data of each factor is shown in Table 2

observe that the eigenvalues of two parameters, x1, X2, X3, X4 and X5, are close to 0, and the conditional indicators are greater than 10, indicating that there is serious multicollinearity between independent variables. The relationship between Y and their respective variables is obtained by regression analysis

2.2 regression analysis of Y and x1

logarithmically process y and X1 first, and the data obtained are shown in Table 3

regression with Excel software shows that r2=0.9834, indicating that the regression equation fits the sample data well; The significance of F is 3.15x, less than 0.05, the test of F passes, the p value of intercept and independent variable is far less than the significance level of 0.05, and the test of T passes. The regression equation is obtained: lny=1.4898+0.934lnx1

where: R is the correlation coefficient of dependent variables and independent variables, f significance is the significance test of the whole model, P value is the value that rejects the original hypothesis, and t test is the significance test of each independent variable., Ln is the logarithm based on the constant e, the same below

2.3 regression analysis of Y and X2

first do logarithmic processing on Y and X2, and the obtained data are shown in Table 4. The average wind speed in the experimental box under no-load is 0.6 ~ 0.8m/s

regression with Excel software shows that r2=0.9753, indicating that the regression equation fits the sample data well; F the significance is that the Vickers hardness tester requires high surface finish of the sample 89x, less than 0.05, pass the test of F, the p value of intercept and independent variable is far less than the significance level of 0.05, and pass the test of T. The regression equation is obtained: lny=2.293+0.89lnx2

2.4 regression analysis of Y and x3

logarithmically process y and X3, and the data obtained are shown in Table 5

regression with Excel software shows that r2=0.9819, indicating that the regression equation fits the sample data well; The significance of F is 4.87x, less than 0.05, the test of F passes, the p value of intercept and independent variable is far less than the significance level of 0.05, and the test of T passes. The regression equation is obtained: lny=-12.1961+4.268lnx3

2.5 regression analysis of Y and X4

logarithmically process y and X4 first, and the data obtained are shown in Table 6

regression with Excel software shows that r2=0.9875, indicating that the regression equation fits the sample data well; The significance of F is 7.42x, less than 0.05, the F test passes, the p value of intercept and independent variable is far less than the significance level of 0.05, and the t test passes. The regression equation is obtained: lny=1.65+0.956lnx4

2.6 regression analysis of Y and X5

logarithmically process y and X5, and the data obtained are shown in Table 7

regression with Excel software shows that r2=0.9717, indicating that the regression equation fits the sample data well; The significance of F is 4.51x, less than 0.05, the test of F passes, the p value of intercept and independent variable is far less than the significance level of 0.05, and the test of T passes. The regression equation is obtained: lny=1.1348+1.1148lnx5

3 Prediction and analysis of the domestic building coating market

according to the steady development trend of China, it is conservatively estimated that the GDP growth rates in 2019, 2020 and 2021 are 6.3%, 6.2% and 5.9% respectively, and the GDP is $13.85 billion, $14.71 billion and $15.58 billion respectively. The output and annual growth rate of architectural coatings in 2019, 2020 and 2021 can be obtained by substituting into the formula, as shown in Table 8

to sum up, with the steady development of China's real estate investment, the paint output has also increased steadily. At the same time, with the increase of the total building stock in the market and the gradual arrival of the old house renovation and exterior wall recoating market, the output of architectural coatings will grow steadily in the next three years

by substituting the output of architectural coatings into the relevant formula, the predicted values of relevant factors can be obtained respectively, as shown in Table 9

4 conclusion

under the sound domestic macro-economy, the real estate industry is stable and rising. At the same time, with the arrival of the recoating market, it has provided strong support for the development of the construction coating industry. On the whole, the construction coating industry has entered a period of stable development. It is expected that the output of architectural coatings will maintain a growth rate of 6.2% in the next three years. By 2021, the output of architectural coatings will reach 8.5962 million tons. For all paint manufacturers, China's construction paint market still has good market potential and good opportunities. All paint manufacturers should rationally choose marketing strategies and strive for greater and faster development

in the era of big data, the architectural coating industry should pay attention to the preservation and collation of data, and apply big data technology to accurately predict market prospects and promote sales. Of course, there are still deficiencies in this paper. There is a strong collinearity between the architectural coating industry and the output value of the construction industry, real estate investment, urbanization, M2 and GDP. In addition, the renovation area of some old houses is not included in the detailed statistics, so further research can be carried out through more factors and more data

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